Abstract: Chang Shi Shan that 2011 was a shock the whole city, there are no major bull market is still structured opportunity to shock interval of 2650-4000 points. The market has been at the bottom, you can focus on running promising new approach .2011 industry in the high-speed rail concept, energy saving, high-end equipment manufacturing, things, asset restructuring, large consumption, information services, subject categories, 2011, 2012,2013 high-speed rail will be the dark horse bolted. inflation has peaked, next year 3.5 In 4.5, will not rise much.
Tazhun rhythm band operation in a row captured Ushimata
private network: First Congratulations WorldCom won the championship, you believe that the success of the world through the most important reasons for that? < br> Chang Shi Shan: In early 2010, we gave the market the year 2010 under a slowly tightening, then proposed direction, operation near the end of 2400, successfully escaped the top 3180 points, to seize the emerging industries of the stock market early next year, October to seize the blue chip market, the greatest degree of thickening of the performance of our.
same time, we dare to shock City band operation which use their own advantages, combined with the advantages of stock selection, the use of the first buy into the election, caught some super bull stock. Hublot operation shares, shares of Silver River, the color of shares, Tibet Tin Road, Baotou Steel Rare Earth, so the more successful Tiantonggufen.
For example, earlier this year we bought 25 per Baotou Steel Rare Earth, and later sold at 45 yuan, because at that time to consider the performance of the stock rose nearly 1 per can , in the following operation, 55 million bought them again, to the 90 or so and then thrown out. Baotou Steel Rare Earth is a successful example, and the other is the color of shares, made a 100%. Ushimata accumulated from the amazing profit, a substantial increase in net worth of our products.
Another important point is that after the crash of 2008, we introduced a strict risk control system, a good smooth fluctuations in our net worth to protect our income.
private network in a row: a brief introduction of your risk control?
regular who Angeles: Once the net down 5%, traders do not ask me, the first time to cut, to admit mistakes. This has is the system of military orders, because not much thought, a hesitation, it may be down to 10%. Stops are rigid things, the investment must be firmness and flexibility. If it is my own, it does not matter fallen by 15%, but not the public product, customer, and you stare at it every day the media.
2011 4000 Year to shock City with high structural opportunity to look for private equity in a row
Network: How do you determine the market in 2011?
Chang Shi Shan: 2011 was a shock the whole city, there are no major bull market, there is no bear market is still the market because of the structural opportunity to .2011 on a lot of uncertainty and more determined, is bound to be a downturn may make you despair, excitement to let you keep a high fever, the climax of the box constantly flick.
downturn could as low as 2650 points, the dynamic price-earnings ratio is only 13-16 times; excitement, may be up to 4,000 points, the dynamic price-earnings ratio of 25 times .2011 Annual range-bound in 2650 --- 4000, 2650 points at the bottom, in the interval doing a reverse, callback, the transaction, the biggest opportunity is in emerging industries.
such judgments are a few reasons, the first First, the tightening policies may in the year 2011 there will not be much change, which determines the supply of liquidity is tight, so there can not be unilateral bull market. Second, with increased interest rates and promote the appreciation of the renminbi will partially offset the impact of liquidity crunch, in this context, if the good performance of listed companies, there appears broad based stock bull market of the stage may be. Third, if the regulation did not effect the real estate, house prices has been stuck atop the state regulation, then there will continue to bear market stage 100 is .2700 points up and down the bottom, then see the 4000 high point, and the high point of 3500 points to 4000 points fall on the probability of a large.
Why determine the inventory of spaces to 4,000 points, if the real estate fall down, the market opportunity for blue-chip, this market could see 4,000 points, breaking the 4,000 points to 5,000 points should be.
entering the bottom of running private row
row network: that what you judge the current market?
regular who Angeles: The current market has been in the bottom of the area, you can run the venue. The reasons are: first, hoisting CPI down. Second, the decline in more than 400 stocks 20% to 25% downside has been stifled. Third, and most importantly, a slow fourth quarter, ahead of China's economy.
stare at the exchange rate policy with inflation bites in a row to see the emerging private
Network: Your concern about the uncertainty of the future What are the main?
Shi Shan Chang: There are many uncertainties in the future. such as real estate prices and policy uncertainty is the game between inflation and economic transformation of the conflict between the development of the RMB exchange rate market-oriented and appreciation of space and speed.
I have three worries: the most worried about is that real estate prices get down, then the Government's regulatory policies will not end. The second concern is that CPI will not be out of control, Third, the RMB exchange rate, Americans will not be even tougher to believe that China is a currency manipulator, to carry out some economic and political diplomacy. If the surface of the big macro can be normal, then these three points in 2011 should be better than 2010 .
addition to the uncertainty of the conflict, while the market there are some policy uncertainty. If the forthcoming second Five-Year Plan, many of them involved such as policy content. These are the focus of the industry can be.
2011 years of successful investment, and ultimately comes down to personal staring at the policy, Zero inflation, bayonet fighting, biting rate, bold but cautious in new industries, the success may be expected.
focused their attention on high-speed rail era of emerging industry dark horse bolted
private network in a row: 2011, which section you are most promising investment opportunities?
Chang Shi Shan: new industries, of course, or a direction of economic transformation process, these industries will be more support for granted, is the focus of the future direction of .2011 on the concept of promising high-speed rail, energy saving, high-end equipment manufacturing, things, asset restructuring, large consumption, information services, subject categories, the trend investment opportunities.
high iron plate will be the dark horse of 2011 plates, the opportunity should be up within two years one of the areas. the next five years China's railway investment by the preliminary estimates for the 3 trillion -4 trillion yuan. Government increase the input into these industries and the policy side of the support, the future promising of these plates for granted. High Speed Rail's main concern supplies, after the rapid development of high-speed rail, in addition to the fuselage, which want to change the parts 3 months time, the country 7,500 kilometers to 10,000 kilometers, and that this market is very large.
2011, the 2012,2013 high-speed rail inside the dark horse bolted, double up is polite, it should be up 2 times, 3 times can be up cognition. As for why up so much, there are three reasons for a country of 9 billion investment in high-speed railway; Singapore government is now talk of a railway, a railway invest 15.7 billion; and then, and Myanmar, Thailand, talked about the 35 billion orders activated high-speed rail the whole industry. Americans say that the Chinese stole the technology from Germany, in fact, we bought a German technology, and then to fast-track high-speed rail, high-speed rail time has come.
CPI inflation has peaked in 3.5m4.5 private in a row running
Network: inflation is not open around 2011, the topic, what do you think of inflation in 2011?
often persons fir: inflation, interest rates caused by the recent series, and more severe monetary tightening. but inflation expectations are not so bad, though investors still worried about the future of the CPI, but rising expectations have been priced out of basic. inflation contradictions of China's economic transition, must go through the pain. early pains of the stock market will reflect this. This is inevitable, like the United States, Japan, these countries have experienced such pain before.
running at a high level of inflation is very likely, but the state has begun on the price for regulation, and to take the administrative measures, the effect can be seen, high inflation, but inflation will not become malignant, will be in Government control. there is no market for next year's general expectations of high inflation, it will not be so severe, has peaked at 3.5 in the next year, 4.5, will not rise much.
is a policy of raising interest rates two or three issues of liquidity does not exist in a row
private network: Do you think 2011 will be tightening up monetary policy ? tight What is the impact on liquidity?
Chang Shi Shan: raise interest rates this year, plus two or three times normal, and the government have been concerned about inflation. to raise interest rates or to contraction of liquidity, and now the Government's intentions more obvious, is to control liquidity and to suppress the price of real estate down, so that smooth operation of the entire economy, but also to transition needs, personal opinion, the market's short-term adjustment is a painful economic restructuring.
As liquidity problems, in my investment strategy, is never seen, because liquidity can not read, for example, you do not know how much hot money came. as long as the effect of money market liquidity does not exist, but fell to 2300 points, liquidity automatically gone.
falling house prices real estate section of stage private equity opportunities in a row
Network: prices are an uncertainty in 2011, no less than the current price regulation, government control will further overweight? real estate sector rose on Tuesday, what do you think the plate investment?
Chang Shi Shan: I am concerned about three aspects of real estate stocks, one government policies continue to suppress, and second, prices will not fall down line of urban housing can not fall down, and the third, CPI can not exceed 5.1%. If you meet the above three conditions, housing prices fall down, government policy is no longer suppressed, then the shares of a Dallas real estate market to come, there could rebound 30% Some stocks may be doubled. but do not have these conditions.
investors focus now must be the new industry, which is a direction, not in the financial, real estate these , 2011, should seize the opportunity structure, mainly the choice in the industry, the most important is the stock trend.
2011 年 broader blue-chip financial stocks, real estate stocks have a chance. only the prices started to decline, and real estate stocks There was a real opportunity, or remains under the control of the expected impact, but because of its low valuation, so there is only stage opportunities.
see real estate prices only fall down, started buying real estate stocks is time. arm is always better than the nose, the government let you down you must fall, or that strange if you do not, you do not want to fall down the final 3 thousand. the real estate business is the support will not last long, and next fall a group of real estate associations , the year after a group of real estate will be completely finished, the state is to this effect. arms and carry her pitcher, the rich more than the demand for rigid After buying, the government if we receive a property tax, from Chongqing, Shanghai, Hangzhou has begun to collect, including Nanjing, signs 15% No, 20% levy, the Government some fist, but it is dry you.
So I want to show that the attitude of this, house prices will fall down, or 500 as long as the day begins , 1 thousand, 2 thousand, you can buy real estate stocks, then, on to the bull market phase.
to maintain sense of balance can not chase sell private placement in a row
Net: For individual investors operating in 2011 What is your recommendation?
Chang Shi Shan: ideas for action in 2011, I think to hold a normal, not chase sell, of course, 2011 may not be up much space, but we expected to be phased bull, blue chips and second-line small-cap stocks may have a style in rotation, as long as the situation well, or can get good returns.
general investors, the position can not be too heavy. If the technical side is good, research more fully, you can find a big bull stock in an instant, if the fundamentals are not, then find some new industries, find some advance by the annual report, to find some trading opportunities.
WorldCom greatest strengths: diligence expertise in private equity in a row mining Ushimata
Network: Do you think the advantages of WorldCom assets, where it?
Chang Shi Shan: I and WorldCom biggest advantage is hard. We WorldCom in 2008 loss of the miserable, then there is a reborn, out of my own enlightenment, Buddhism has six, the first, people will learn a hundred times what I want to be, others will not want to be I learned a thousand times. is that we put I think that paid off, input is always proportional with your pay. Our efforts in research is a great investment stocks have been in-depth research, such as Hublot shares, I went to the company to research more than 4 times before buying.
Second, the market cycle, selected high-quality industry.
third is to explore the world through skilled stock dark horse, with a first-class strength of selection of individual stocks. Our ability to select Ushimata in the end come from, I think a certain angle from the forward-looking, forward-looking perspective, a number of national policies that support the industry. real estate, finance, insurance, and I basically do not see the broader market the past two years more than 10 more than a billion blue-chip Q do not ask, I do not have a stock market value of more than 10 million, basically all 150000000-5 million between. net assets must be more than 15%, gross profit must be above 20%. there it management it must be a layer of Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces, such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Chongqing, Wuhan, Shanghai, and our range of stock selection is so simple, there are a number of investment themes, such as Tibet, Xinjiang plate.
---- three low bid method - low-cost, low volume, low-attention network
private in a row: Could you explain the low-cost, low volume, low attention, no one concerned about the ugly duckling, you to pay attention to it.
cheap, I chose hands are 3-15, more than this I do not see, three absolute minimum Price, 15 neutral and cheap, because the 10 dollars to 15 most likely to occur inside the dark horse of this, performance is not bad, the motherboard is not high, the fundamentals are normal, easy to get large organizations, three rose to 20 is very simple you buy 40 shares turn 100 of these years.
second, low volume, we remember the best time is when the smallest volume.
third, low-attention, the need to do that is not easy, because there are one time costs.
from the philosophy, the For example, if the valuation of high-speed rail has reached the plate 50 times, and now suddenly found a 16-fold, the 16-times called absolute underestimated. high-iron to 70 times is high, but you now find a 40-fold, is halfway up the mountain. If a stock rises 14 from 7 dollars, it is still worth buying, because the will rise, which is relatively low. the market conditions there, you buy the price is high, but for me is low, because the upper part there is enough space. This is the election, as well as the dynamic peak of the problem, the final recognition of the market.
independent thinking and diligent research in a row
Private Network: How do you select stocks ?
Chang Shi Shan: I bought the company I have to read. I am essentially still a value investor, return on net assets to meet the 10% gross profit margin must be over 25%, industry growth prospects must be , below the standard I do not see. start with the macro perspective, to see the industry turning point in the from below, and then look inside from the industry, stocks, catch a leader, only the leader will eventually reach the shore.
judgments of macroeconomic policy entirely from independent thinking, do not listen to gossip.'s report from the broker does not see, but I choose the right stock, and then find the corresponding report view. look at their point of view of thinking, logic is biased, that My perspective defects, correct his own, and then buy the market to determine. I often walk around the weekend to see the mall to buy overcrowding has been in the business of Nanjing, four months has quadrupled.
I have 120 shares of the pool, each time select 5 from here, the old stock mostly, and sometimes adjusted once a week, sometimes two months, but like the concept of earth, life without adjustment, long pegged it, and have the opportunity to buy. It's like you know a person, feeling good, he was not hurt long-term concern. long-term exchanges, he will, and you pledge allegiance, become very good friends, make plans for you, make you more career points high. good stock, too, it will teach you to understand the broader market, will reveal the history behind the broader market.
three cornerstones of the success story of the three rows
private network: in terms of an investment, your investment needs that possess important qualities?
Chang Shi Shan: the first is the awareness of risk control, as I always say the crocodile story. you swim in the drink, when suddenly the toes are little fish bite, and a little pain, did not respond, suddenly the pain increased, and then bite your legs, thighs bite the third step, very painful, looking down, one looked a crocodile, and then open Xuepentaikou to bend your legs look when eaten by crocodiles. crocodile story tells us, in a bear market cut losses by 5 points, do not report to me immediately cut off. this year in the stock market in the foreign exchange market who cut all who earn fast The more I do not know or not to support, this is absolutely the truth.
second is to pursue long-term absolute returns. we do not invest more money than anyone else, the most important thing is to live longer, who long live, who can be the ultimate winner, this is the tortoise and the hare story. tortoise and the hare obvious differences, we all know the world's oldest rabbit only three years, and the turtle had a hundred turtle, the Millennium turtle, so we do investors suggested a tortoise, turtles do not do the rabbit, this is the big deal, we must do faint-hearted! financing is a long distance run, when we uphold the truth in the investment, even by the grievance is understandable that .
The third is to clarify the rules of the game. any person entering the stock market must take the rules of the game before they get to know, why do you loss. a lot of people will look at financial statements, industry analysts do not see the turning point will not look, and then is to read newspapers, watch the media, to see what network, see friends, so Paipaipigu three minutes to go in to buy. I bought a stock, the minimum will be ready 3 months to 6 months or more, and you three minutes to decide . long to think a head is used, the poor are changed, change the pass, if the deficit in investment, the loss of the necessary thinking, thinking there is progress, and think about why a loss, because you do not know rules of the game.
potential investment and speculative stocks is uncertain, and private equity in a row with
Network: Please use short sentences to summarize your investment sentiment?
often persons fir: in investment research primarily focused on human nature, the nature of each stage of market analysis , and then adapt to the market, with the situation and changed at any time. Water uncertain type, stock uncertain potential, investment and speculation and used to transformation strain is the soul of the investment strategy.
who concluded
often more optimistic about the 2011 Sequoia right, structural opportunities that will exist, but that does not appear bullish, remains a concussion city, point of shock interval 2650-4000, the market bottoms are in, you can approach.
the choice of the plate, often with disabilities Angeles 2011 focus on promising new industries in the high-speed rail concept, energy saving, high-end equipment manufacturing, things, asset restructuring, large consumption, information services, subject categories, with special emphasis on that, 2011, 2012,2013 high-speed rail will be the dark horse bolted.
for inflation, often with disabilities who are more optimistic about cedar that inflation has peaked, next year's CPI will be located between 3.5 to 4.5.
often persons fir that house prices will fall only after falling house prices , the real estate sector the opportunity to appear systematic, house prices did not fall before the real estate is at best short-term trading opportunities.
more often with disabilities into the private in a row Angeles News Network
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